Gold Rush
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$590.62
909 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $531.56 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.61%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
53.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 19.0% | $1,483 2,282 gems | 53.0% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 19.0% | $904 1,391 gems | 32.3% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 11 | $649 999 gems | 11.0% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.78× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $94.29 145 gems | 1.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.85× |
| Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $63.25 97.3 gems | 1.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 35.0% | $15.42 23.73 gems | 1.0% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restrictedEnergetic Ferret$591909 gems$15.4223.73 gems0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $591 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 56.0%epic 9.0%restricted 35.0%best hit $1,483 (2.51x)