Gold Star
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.01
38.47 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $22.50 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.05%
2,687 openings, odds method
Variance
38.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 125
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,780 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertez nem Barni$25.0138.47 gems$2,2753,500 gems90.98x
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialLonsdale BOSWALL$25.0138.47 gems$5.728.8 gems0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $25.01 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.8%epic 0.9%Covert 1.0%restricted 4.3%blue 5.0%industrial 10.0%#B0C3D9 30.0%mil spec 45.0%best hit $2,275 (90.98x)