Golden Boot
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$103.99
160 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $93.59 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.65%
1,592 openings, odds method
Variance
16.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,673 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 100 | $3,755 5,777 gems | 40.1% | 20 | 16.7 | 1.20× |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,755 2,700 gems | 18.8% | 19 | 16.7 | 1.14× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $744 1,145 gems | 15.9% | 33 | 33.5 | 0.99× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $497 764 gems | 10.6% | 30 | 33.5 | 0.90× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $352 542 gems | 7.5% | 36 | 33.5 | 1.08× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 50 | $177 272 gems | 3.8% | 41 | 33.5 | 1.23× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $68.90 106 gems | 1.5% | 35 | 33.5 | 1.05× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $35.03 53.89 gems | 1.1% | 58 | 50.2 | 1.16× |
| P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)weapon · uncommon | 85.0% | $0.78 1.2 gems | 0.7% | 1,401 | 1422.0 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponArmands Miesnieks$104160 gems$3,7555,777 gems36.11x
Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponArmands Miesnieks$104160 gems$3,7555,777 gems36.11x
Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponArmands Miesnieks$104160 gems$3,7555,777 gems36.11x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$104160 gems$1,7552,700 gems16.88x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $104 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 1.0%covert 10.0%red 2.0%restricted 2.0%uncommon 85.0%best hit $3,755 (36.11x)