Golden Gates
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$565.47
870 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $508.92 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.22%
87 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 87 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $5,595 8,607 gems | 55.0% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $3,161 4,863 gems | 31.1% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.61× |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $668 1,028 gems | 6.6% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.15× |
| M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $263 405 gems | 2.6% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× |
| G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $134 205 gems | 1.3% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $72.49 112 gems | 0.7% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.15× |
| UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $57.95 89.16 gems | 1.7% | 17 | 13.0 | 1.30× |
| Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 15.0% | $22.63 34.82 gems | 0.7% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.84× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $8.46 13.02 gems | 0.3% | 17 | 17.4 | 0.98× |
| MP7 | Asterion (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $2.37 3.64 gems | 0.1% | 20 | 17.4 | 1.15× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $565 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExtraordinary 5.0%covert 5.0%classified 5.0%restricted 10.0%mil spec 20.0%Classified 15.0%industrial 20.0%consumer 20.0%best hit $5,595 (9.89x)