Goofy Goobert

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$112.58

173 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $101.32 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

123.76%

4,023 openings, odds method

Variance

94.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 167

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

386 openings · below min

7 days

129.53%±31.763,578 openings

30 days

123.76%±29.954,023 openings

since tracking started

123.76%±29.954,023 openings

52.5%149.8%247.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (93.80% – 153.71%, 4,023 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	386	149.68%±96.7	—	odds
7d	3,578	129.53%±31.8	+2.4σ	odds
30d	4,023	123.76%±30.0	+2.2σ	odds
All	4,023	123.76%±30.0	+2.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,106 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 1,000	$32.5K 50,000 gems	32.1%	7	4.1	1.70×
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 500	$6,615 10,177 gems	13.1%	14	8.2	1.70×
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 333	$3,133 4,821 gems	9.3%	16	12.3	1.30×
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 250	$1,723 2,650 gems	6.8%	22	16.4	1.34×
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$890 1,369 gems	8.8%	41	41.1	1.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$614 944 gems	6.1%	50	41.1	1.22×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$367 565 gems	7.2%	86	82.1	1.05×
★ Flip Knifeknife · covert	1 in 50	$202 311 gems	4.0%	64	82.1	0.78×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$138 212 gems	4.1%	100	123.2	0.81×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$64.55 99.3 gems	3.2%	194	205.3	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$38.56 59.33 gems	1.9%	182	205.3	0.89×
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$29.43 45.28 gems	1.5%	209	205.3	1.02×
MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$14.68 22.58 gems	0.7%	220	205.3	1.07×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 20	$6.83 10.5 gems	0.3%	205	205.3	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$3.77 5.8 gems	0.6%	607	615.9	0.99×
P90 \| Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	20.0%	$1.48 2.28 gems	0.3%	855	821.2	1.04×
Sealed Graffiti \| Hamster Hawkgraffiti · Mythical	30.0%	$0.64 0.98 gems	0.2%	1,234	1231.8	1.00×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryeverythingroi$113173 gems$32.5K50,000 gems288.7x3h

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$113173 gems$32.5K50,000 gems288.7x1d

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$113173 gems$32.5K50,000 gems288.7x4d

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$113173 gems$32.5K50,000 gems288.7x6d

Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$113173 gems$6,61510,177 gems58.76x3h

Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$113173 gems$6,61510,177 gems58.76x6h

Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$113173 gems$6,61510,177 gems58.76x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sealed Graffiti | Hamster Hawkgraffiti · Mythical$113173 gems$0.640.98 gems0.01x3m

P90 | Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$113173 gems$1.482.28 gems0.01x3m

MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$113173 gems$14.6822.58 gems0.13x3m

Sealed Graffiti | Hamster Hawkgraffiti · MythicalLive kick/vaultycs$113173 gems$0.640.98 gems0.01x3m

Dual Berettas | Demolition (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$113173 gems$3.775.8 gems0.03x2h

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$113173 gems$38.5659.33 gems0.34x2h

P90 | Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$113173 gems$1.482.28 gems0.01x2h

MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$113173 gems$14.6822.58 gems0.13x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$113	90.00%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.4%remarkable 0.2%high 0.4%covert 6.0%covert knife 3.0%mil spec 5.0%classified 10.0%blue 5.0%#eb4b4b 5.0%restricted 15.0%Rare 20.0%Mythical 30.0%best hit $32.5K (288.7x)