Granny Smith
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.82
16.65 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $9.74 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.05%
5,631 openings, odds method
Variance
23.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,767 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 200 | $682 1,049 gems | 35.0% | 37 | 28.8 | 1.28× |
| Souvenir Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 50 | $138 212 gems | 28.3% | 126 | 115.3 | 1.09× |
| Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 33 | $67.75 104 gems | 20.9% | 165 | 173.0 | 0.95× |
| Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 13 | $11.17 17.18 gems | 8.6% | 443 | 432.5 | 1.02× |
| SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $5.74 8.83 gems | 5.9% | 558 | 576.7 | 0.97× |
| MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 0.5% | 817 | 865.0 | 0.94× |
| Galil AR | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9 | 20.0% | $0.19 0.29 gems | 0.4% | 1,179 | 1153.4 | 1.02× |
| G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $0.16 0.25 gems | 0.3% | 1,119 | 1153.4 | 0.97× |
| PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 22.0% | $0.09 0.14 gems | 0.2% | 1,323 | 1268.7 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil specRAITEKK$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil specMischievous Frog$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil specStariks$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil specStariks$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$10.8216.65 gems$6821,049 gems62.98x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $10.82 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 0.5%industrial 79.5%#5e98d9 20.0%best hit $682 (62.98x)