Graveyard Hours
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.07
23.19 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $13.56 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.58%
3,418 openings, odds method
Variance
39.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (43.61% – 85.56%, 3,418 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,460 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 667 | $2,233 3,436 gems | 24.7% | 1 | 5.2 | 0.19× |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $588 905 gems | 10.8% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.58× |
| M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic | 1 in 167 | $282 434 gems | 12.5% | 14 | 20.8 | 0.67× |
| ★ Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $112 173 gems | 8.3% | 35 | 34.6 | 1.01× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $43.21 66.48 gems | 9.6% | 101 | 103.8 | 0.97× |
| AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare | 1 in 20 | $31.43 48.36 gems | 11.6% | 173 | 173.0 | 1.00× |
| MP9 | Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 10.0% | $13.47 20.72 gems | 9.9% | 346 | 346.0 | 1.00× |
| P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 20.0% | $3.97 6.1 gems | 5.8% | 683 | 692.0 | 0.99× |
| MP5-SD | Agent (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $2.31 3.55 gems | 5.1% | 1,065 | 1038.0 | 1.03× |
| MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff | 30.0% | $0.75 1.15 gems | 1.7% | 1,037 | 1038.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $15.07 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.1%classified 0.3%epic 0.6%rare 5.0%#8847ff 40.0%Legendary 20.0%restricted 30.0%best hit $2,233 (148.2x)