Greasy
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.72
44.18 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $25.85 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.89%
494 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 24
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 500 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $589 906 gems | 22.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| ★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 80 | $396 610 gems | 19.2% | 9 | 6.3 | 1.44× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $189 291 gems | 14.6% | 5 | 10.0 | 0.50× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $146 225 gems | 11.3% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $53.92 82.96 gems | 10.4% | 21 | 25.0 | 0.84× |
| Sticker | Renegades (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · restricted | 1 in 13 | $25.71 39.56 gems | 7.5% | 35 | 37.5 | 0.93× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 10.0% | $11.78 18.12 gems | 4.6% | 58 | 50.0 | 1.16× |
| Sticker | GODSENT (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · remarkable | 10.0% | $8.66 13.32 gems | 3.3% | 36 | 50.0 | 0.72× |
| Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 30.0% | $2.87 4.41 gems | 3.3% | 165 | 150.0 | 1.10× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 31.3% | $2.47 3.8 gems | 3.0% | 157 | 156.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$28.7244.18 gems$53.9282.96 gems1.88x
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryDaxo$28.7244.18 gems$53.9282.96 gems1.88x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $28.72 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 37.5%extraordinary 5.0%restricted 7.5%red 10.0%remarkable 10.0%#8847ff 30.0%best hit $589 (20.50x)