Gumball
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.39
54.44 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $31.85 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.27%
2,967 openings, odds method
Variance
85.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,977 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted$35.3954.44 gems$1.642.52 gems0.05x
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restrictedCoochieMuncher$35.3954.44 gems$1.642.52 gems0.05x
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted$35.3954.44 gems$1.642.52 gems0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $35.39 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 0.2%legendary 0.7%rare 4.0%restricted 75.0%classified 20.0%best hit $9,176 (259.3x)