Gutted

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$105.31

162 gems

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $94.78 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.08%

87 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

81 openings · below min

30 days

87 openings · below min

since tracking started

87 openings · below min

54.0%87.0%120.0%

Small sample. 87 openings and 8.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	81	86.28%±31.6	—	odds
30d	87	89.08%±30.5	—	odds
All	87	89.08%±30.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 20	$539 830 gems	28.5%	6	4.3	1.38×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 20	$437 673 gems	23.1%	3	4.3	0.69×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$269 414 gems	14.2%	3	4.3	0.69×
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$216 333 gems	11.4%	3	4.3	0.69×
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$159 245 gems	8.4%	5	4.3	1.15×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$95.06 146 gems	5.0%	4	4.3	0.92×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$68.02 105 gems	3.6%	7	4.3	1.61×
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$56.38 86.74 gems	3.0%	6	4.3	1.38×
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$53.10 81.69 gems	2.8%	3	4.3	0.69×
Sticker \| Guttedsticker · high	55.0%	$0.12 0.19 gems	0.1%	47	47.9	0.98×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.