Hail Mary
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.80
45.85 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $26.82 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.71%
3,411 openings, odds method
Variance
100.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 313
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,435 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary | 1 in 2,000 | $6,240 9,600 gems | 11.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary | 1 in 1,429 | $5,694 8,760 gems | 14.9% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband | 1 in 1,000 | $3,583 5,513 gems | 13.4% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.75× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $2,740 4,216 gems | 10.2% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| ★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $2,570 3,954 gems | 9.6% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 667 | $2,450 3,769 gems | 13.7% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.78× |
| Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 556 | $1,993 3,066 gems | 13.4% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $1,405 2,162 gems | 13.1% | 6 | 8.6 | 0.70× |
| Sticker | Dragon Talesticker · high | 99.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.2% | 3,405 | 3400.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$29.8045.85 gems$5,6948,760 gems191.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $29.80 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%contraband 0.1%covert 0.5%classified 0.1%remarkable 0.2%high 99.0%best hit $6,240 (209.4x)