Hardstuck Bronze
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.59
20.91 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.23 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.40%
1,511 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,546 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $72.72 112 gems | 29.7% | 77 | 77.3 | 1.00× |
| SCAR-20 | Brass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $51.80 79.69 gems | 21.2% | 73 | 77.3 | 0.94× |
| AK-47 | Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $24.00 36.92 gems | 9.8% | 79 | 77.3 | 1.02× |
| MAC-10 | Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $17.95 27.62 gems | 7.3% | 89 | 77.3 | 1.15× |
| SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $13.01 20.02 gems | 10.6% | 156 | 154.6 | 1.01× |
| XM1014 | Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $8.48 13.05 gems | 6.9% | 152 | 154.6 | 0.98× |
| PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $5.39 8.29 gems | 6.6% | 213 | 231.9 | 0.92× |
| Negev | Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 15.0% | $3.61 5.55 gems | 4.4% | 249 | 231.9 | 1.07× |
| Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $1.96 3.02 gems | 2.4% | 241 | 231.9 | 1.04× |
| R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $0.77 1.18 gems | 0.9% | 217 | 231.9 | 0.94× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.59 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%mil spec 5.0%pink 10.0%classified 35.0%industrial 15.0%Uncommon 15.0%violet 15.0%best hit —