Haunted Vault
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.05
57 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $33.34 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.77%
1,900 openings, odds method
Variance
61.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,959 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 667 | $6,372 9,803 gems | 28.7% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× |
| ★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $2,595 3,992 gems | 19.5% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 167 | $1,030 1,584 gems | 18.5% | 14 | 11.8 | 1.19× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $194 298 gems | 23.2% | 75 | 78.4 | 0.96× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 17 | $16.38 25.2 gems | 2.9% | 113 | 117.5 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 11 | $13.07 20.11 gems | 3.5% | 178 | 176.3 | 1.01× |
| Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $3.95 6.08 gems | 1.8% | 289 | 293.8 | 0.98× |
| P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.95 3 gems | 1.2% | 399 | 391.8 | 1.02× |
| MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 45.0% | $0.51 0.78 gems | 0.7% | 884 | 881.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$37.0557 gems$6,3729,803 gems172.0x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$37.0557 gems$6,3729,803 gems172.0x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinarySickez$37.0557 gems$6,3729,803 gems172.0x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$37.0557 gems$16.3825.2 gems0.44x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLonsdale BOSWALL$37.0557 gems$3.956.08 gems0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $37.05 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 4.9%restricted 41.0%Legendary 9.0%industrial 45.0%best hit $6,372 (172.0x)