Heat Check
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.03
18.5 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $10.82 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.01%
2,645 openings, odds method
Variance
13.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,669 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 500 | $809 1,245 gems | 15.0% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.31× |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 500 | $464 714 gems | 8.6% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.50× |
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $255 392 gems | 4.7% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.12× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $163 250 gems | 3.0% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× |
| M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $92.30 142 gems | 1.7% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.12× |
| M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 500 | $62.92 96.8 gems | 1.2% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.31× |
| MP9 | Setting Sun (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $26.87 41.34 gems | 24.8% | 306 | 266.9 | 1.15× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $13.85 21.31 gems | 12.8% | 268 | 266.9 | 1.00× |
| Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $10.54 16.21 gems | 9.7% | 265 | 266.9 | 0.99× |
| P90 | Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 68.8% | $2.91 4.48 gems | 18.5% | 1,791 | 1836.3 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $12.03 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.2%restricted 79.0%classified 0.4%covert 0.2%mil spec 20.2%best hit $809 (67.30x)