Heavy Crown
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$113.40
174 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $102.06 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
129.52%
3,601 openings, odds method
Variance
107.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.72% – 163.31%, 3,601 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,658 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableGropus The Grand$113174 gems$26K40,000 gems229.3x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$113174 gems$48.3674.4 gems0.43x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $113 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.2%covert 4.3%classified 0.5%high 1.0%rare 1.0%Covert 3.0%#4b69ff 5.0%extraordinary 10.0%industrial 75.0%best hit $26K (229.3x)