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Heavy Hits

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$32.06
49.32 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $28.85 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.02%
1,546 openings, odds method
Variance
13.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
86.13%±40.00315 openings
7 days
82.43%±18.741,436 openings
30 days
81.02%±18.061,546 openings
since tracking started
81.02%±18.061,546 openings
45.5%86.3%127.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h31586.13%±40.0−0.2σodds
7d1,43682.43%±18.7−0.8σodds
30d1,54681.02%±18.1−1.0σodds
All1,54681.02%±18.1−1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,570 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 500$1,728 2,659 gems12.0%23.10.64×
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 333$1,300 2,000 gems13.5%34.70.64×
MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$346 533 gems12.0%1615.71.02×
Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 100$267 410 gems9.2%1615.71.02×
Nova | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$182 280 gems12.6%1931.40.61×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Heavy1 in 33$120 185 gems12.5%5347.11.13×
MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$79.34 122 gems8.3%5147.11.08×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 20$22.70 34.93 gems3.9%8878.51.12×
XM1014 | Red Leather (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 20$21.26 32.71 gems3.7%9078.51.15×
StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified10.0%$16.24 24.99 gems5.6%149157.00.95×
M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial25.0%$4.45 6.85 gems3.9%383392.50.98×
Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet44.5%$1.81 2.78 gems2.8%700698.61.00×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified$32.0649.32 gems$1,7282,659 gems53.91x
Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified$32.0649.32 gems$1,7282,659 gems53.91x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$32.0649.32 gems$1,3002,000 gems40.55x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$32.0649.32 gems$1,3002,000 gems40.55x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$32.0649.32 gems$1,3002,000 gems40.55x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$32.0649.32 gems$4.456.85 gems0.14x
MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$32.0649.32 gems$79.34122 gems2.47x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b$32.0649.32 gems$22.7034.93 gems0.71x
MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$32.0649.32 gems$79.34122 gems2.47x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b$32.0649.32 gems$22.7034.93 gems0.71x
Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violeteverythingroi$32.0649.32 gems$1.812.78 gems0.06x
Nova | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$32.0649.32 gems$182280 gems5.68x
Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$32.0649.32 gems$1.812.78 gems0.06x
Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$32.0649.32 gems$1.812.78 gems0.06x
MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$32.0649.32 gems$79.34122 gems2.47x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$32.0689.98%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 11.2%restricted 0.3%#4b69ff 1.0%mil spec 5.0%Heavy 3.0%#eb4b4b 5.0%Rare 5.0%industrial 25.0%violet 44.5%best hit $1,728 (53.91x)