Hell case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$74.05
114 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $66.64 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.42%
579 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 579 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$74.05114 gems$6521,003 gems8.80x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$74.05114 gems$6521,003 gems8.80x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$74.05114 gems$6521,003 gems8.80x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $74.05 | 89.99% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.0%Covert 0.5%covert 1.0%rare 4.5%mil spec 72.0%extraordinary 5.0%Ancient 5.0%restricted 10.0%best hit $1,527 (20.63x)