Highroller Dreams
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$729.23
1,122 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $656.30 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.33%
34 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 34 openings and 5.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 40 | $5,054 7,776 gems | 19.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary | 1 in 40 | $3,135 4,823 gems | 11.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $1,492 2,296 gems | 22.7% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| ★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 15.0% | $896 1,379 gems | 20.5% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $857 1,318 gems | 13.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 10.0% | $367 565 gems | 5.6% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.76× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 20.0% | $225 346 gems | 6.9% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $1.54 2.37 gems | 0.1% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.18× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertGentle Anteater$7291,122 gems$8961,379 gems1.23x
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covertGentle Anteater$7291,122 gems$8571,318 gems1.18x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $729 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 27.5%legendary 2.5%classified 40.0%sunny 30.0%best hit $3,135 (4.30x)