Holiday Heist
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$44.88
69.05 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $40.39 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.88%
632 openings, odds method
Variance
9.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 653 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert✪ R1PPER5.9$44.8869.05 gems$1,2141,867 gems27.04x
Latest dropsnewest first
P2000 | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · mil specFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$44.8869.05 gems$1.362.09 gems0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $44.88 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.0%extraordinary 5.0%restricted 2.0%classified 15.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%Industrial Grade 10.0%mil spec 20.0%Rare 35.0%best hit $1,214 (27.04x)