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Hollowpoint Case

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$229.46
353 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $206.51 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.91%
761 openings, odds method
Variance
15.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
36 openings · below min
7 days
94.63%±34.28521 openings
30 days
86.91%±28.36761 openings
since tracking started
86.91%±28.36761 openings
-0.5%88.0%176.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3645.39%±130.4—odds
7d52194.63%±34.3+0.3σodds
30d76186.91%±28.4−0.2σodds
All76186.91%±28.4−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 795 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband1 in 200$9,088 13,981 gems22.0%34.00.75×
AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary1 in 100$5,234 8,053 gems25.3%68.00.75×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 67$2,996 4,609 gems21.8%1311.91.09×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 50$1,625 2,500 gems15.7%1815.91.13×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 50$468 720 gems4.5%1515.90.94×
★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 33$261 401 gems3.8%2823.81.17×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 20$123 189 gems3.0%4139.81.03×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert10.0%$37.71 58.02 gems1.8%8079.51.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon15.0%$10.11 15.55 gems0.7%110119.30.92×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified60.0%$4.49 6.91 gems1.3%481477.01.01×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$229353 gems$9,08813,981 gems39.61x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$229353 gems$9,08813,981 gems39.61x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$229353 gems$9,08813,981 gems39.61x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$229353 gems$5,2348,053 gems22.81x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$229353 gems$5,2348,053 gems22.81x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$229353 gems$5,2348,053 gems22.81x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$229353 gems$5,2348,053 gems22.81x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$229353 gems$5,2348,053 gems22.81x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$229353 gems$5,2348,053 gems22.81x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$229353 gems$2,9964,609 gems13.06x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$229353 gems$4.496.91 gems0.02x
★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · Immortal$229353 gems$261401 gems1.14x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$229353 gems$4.496.91 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$229353 gems$10.1115.55 gems0.04x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$229353 gems$10.1115.55 gems0.04x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertBOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs$229353 gems$37.7158.02 gems0.16x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$229353 gems$10.1115.55 gems0.04x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$229353 gems$4.496.91 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$229353 gems$4.496.91 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$229353 gems$2,9964,609 gems13.06x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$22990.00%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.5%legendary 2.5%covert 19.0%Immortal 3.0%uncommon 15.0%classified 60.0%best hit $9,088 (39.61x)