Holo King
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,812.75
4,327 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2,531.45 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.03%
98 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 98 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 50 | $34.1K 52,490 gems | 27.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 50 | $32.5K 50,000 gems | 25.7% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 50 | $26K 40,000 gems | 20.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 50 | $18.4K 28,238 gems | 14.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 50 | $15.6K 24,000 gems | 12.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.53× |
| Sticker | rain (Champion) | Antwerp 2022sticker · Rare | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.0% | 90 | 88.2 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryMeluhdy$2,8134,327 gems$34.1K52,490 gems12.13x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$2,8134,327 gems$32.5K50,000 gems11.55x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$2,8134,327 gems$32.5K50,000 gems11.55x
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$2,8134,327 gems$26K40,000 gems9.24x
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkablejurassicpeek$2,8134,327 gems$18.4K28,238 gems6.53x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$2,8134,327 gems$15.6K24,000 gems5.55x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$2,8134,327 gems$15.6K24,000 gems5.55x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$2,8134,327 gems$15.6K24,000 gems5.55x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$2,8134,327 gems$15.6K24,000 gems5.55x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2,813 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 6.0%remarkable 4.0%Rare 90.0%best hit $34.1K (12.13x)