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Hologram

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$385.81
594 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $347.22 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.92%
546 openings, odds method
Variance
15.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
42 openings · below min
7 days
97.68%±42.12327 openings
30 days
93.92%±32.59546 openings
since tracking started
93.92%±32.59546 openings
-0.5%70.0%140.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4217.31%±117.5—odds
7d32797.68%±42.1+0.4σodds
30d54693.92%±32.6+0.2σodds
All54693.92%±32.6+0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 552 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 200$16.6K 25,500 gems23.9%32.81.09×
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 67$6,409 9,860 gems27.7%98.31.09×
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 50$3,803 5,850 gems21.9%1011.00.91×
Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 50$1,765 2,715 gems10.2%1311.01.18×
Sticker | compLexity Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 50$1,050 1,616 gems6.0%911.00.82×
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | DreamHack 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 17$241 371 gems4.2%3633.11.09×
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Cologne 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 17$126 193 gems2.2%3333.11.00×
Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Holo) | Atlanta 2017sticker · #8847ff16.0%$56.19 86.44 gems2.6%10488.31.18×
Sticker | SK Gaming (Holo) | Cologne 2016sticker · remarkable16.0%$20.09 30.9 gems0.9%8088.30.91×
Sticker | G2 Esports (Holo) | Cologne 2016sticker · Mythical16.0%$6.84 10.52 gems0.3%7788.30.87×
Sticker | Team Liquid (Holo) | London 2018sticker · Mythical16.0%$3.20 4.92 gems0.1%8788.30.99×
Sticker | Chief (Holo)sticker · remarkable16.0%$0.21 0.32 gems0.0%9188.31.03×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$16.6K25,500 gems42.96x
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$16.6K25,500 gems42.96x
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$16.6K25,500 gems42.96x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$6,4099,860 gems16.61x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$6,4099,860 gems16.61x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableMochi$386594 gems$6,4099,860 gems16.61x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$6,4099,860 gems16.61x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$6,4099,860 gems16.61x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$6,4099,860 gems16.61x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$6,4099,860 gems16.61x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sticker | Chief (Holo)sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$0.210.32 gems0.00x
Sticker | SK Gaming (Holo) | Cologne 2016sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$20.0930.9 gems0.05x
Sticker | Team Liquid (Holo) | London 2018sticker · Mythical$386594 gems$3.204.92 gems0.01x
Sticker | Chief (Holo)sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$0.210.32 gems0.00x
Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Holo) | Atlanta 2017sticker · #8847ff$386594 gems$56.1986.44 gems0.15x
Sticker | Team Liquid (Holo) | London 2018sticker · MythicalCODE SEXYBOOM / 20K LB$386594 gems$3.204.92 gems0.01x
Sticker | SK Gaming (Holo) | Cologne 2016sticker · remarkable$386594 gems$20.0930.9 gems0.05x
Sticker | Team Liquid (Holo) | London 2018sticker · Mythical$386594 gems$3.204.92 gems0.01x
Sticker | Team Liquid (Holo) | London 2018sticker · Mythical$386594 gems$3.204.92 gems0.01x
Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Holo) | Atlanta 2017sticker · #8847ff$386594 gems$56.1986.44 gems0.15x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$38690.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 50.0%legendary 2.0%#8847ff 16.0%Mythical 32.0%best hit $16.6K (42.96x)