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Horizon Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$2.31
3.55 gems
Advertised RTP
89.90%
EV $2.07 from 69 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.66%
6,417 openings, odds method
Variance
69.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 111
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
443 openings · below min
7 days
82.43%±22.055,464 openings
30 days
83.66%±20.356,417 openings
since tracking started
83.66%±20.356,417 openings
-0.5%61.3%123.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h44344.88%±77.5—odds
7d5,46482.43%±22.1−0.7σodds
30d6,41783.66%±20.4−0.6σodds
All6,41783.66%±20.4−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,474 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$1,506 2,316 gems3.6%00.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$848 1,305 gems2.0%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$775 1,192 gems1.9%00.3—
★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$736 1,132 gems1.8%00.3—
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$536 825 gems1.3%00.3—
★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$500 769 gems1.2%00.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$497 764 gems1.2%00.3—
★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 20,000$388 597 gems0.9%00.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$348 535 gems0.8%00.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$343 528 gems0.8%00.3—
★ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · #EB4B4B1 in 20,000$328 505 gems0.8%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 20,000$318 489 gems0.8%20.3—
★ Talon Knifeknife · covert1 in 20,000$285 438 gems0.7%10.3—
★ Talon Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$277 427 gems0.7%00.3—
★ Talon Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$273 419 gems0.7%00.3—
★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 20,000$259 399 gems0.6%00.3—
★ Talon Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 20,000$256 393 gems0.6%10.3—
★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$252 388 gems0.6%20.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$249 383 gems0.6%00.3—
★ Stiletto Knifeknife · covert1 in 20,000$244 375 gems0.6%20.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$228 350 gems0.5%00.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$224 344 gems0.5%20.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$219 337 gems0.5%00.3—
★ Talon Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 20,000$219 337 gems0.5%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$209 322 gems0.5%00.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$204 314 gems0.5%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$196 302 gems0.5%10.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$183 281 gems0.4%00.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$170 262 gems0.4%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 20,000$167 256 gems0.4%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$166 255 gems0.4%00.3—
★ Ursus Knifeknife · covert1 in 20,000$156 240 gems0.4%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$149 230 gems0.4%10.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$149 229 gems0.4%00.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$145 224 gems0.4%00.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$130 200 gems0.3%10.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 20,000$113 174 gems0.3%00.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 20,000$113 174 gems0.3%10.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$112 173 gems0.3%10.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$109 168 gems0.3%00.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$106 164 gems0.3%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$101 155 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$99.19 153 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$94.25 145 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$90.62 139 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 20,000$88.97 137 gems0.2%10.3—
★ Navaja Knifeknife · covert1 in 20,000$86.75 133 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · #ffd7001 in 20,000$80.91 124 gems0.2%00.3—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$80.57 124 gems12.4%2320.71.11×
★ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$78.42 121 gems0.2%10.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$77.35 119 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$75.14 116 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$71.18 110 gems0.2%10.3—
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$42.06 64.7 gems6.5%1420.70.68×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$25.68 39.51 gems13.2%6869.00.99×
Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$7.10 10.92 gems3.6%7269.01.04×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$7.06 10.86 gems3.6%7569.01.09×
AWP | PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$2.13 3.27 gems3.3%205206.90.99×
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$1.85 2.85 gems2.9%212206.91.02×
Nova | Toy Soldier (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$1.84 2.83 gems2.8%189206.90.91×
G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$1.75 2.69 gems2.7%200206.90.97×
MP7 | Powercore (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$1.72 2.65 gems2.7%186206.90.90×
P90 | Traction (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.60 0.93 gems3.3%753739.11.02×
Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.46 0.71 gems2.5%769739.11.04×
Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.46 0.71 gems2.5%720739.10.97×
MP9 | Capillary (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.33 0.5 gems1.8%759739.11.03×
Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.21 0.32 gems1.1%718739.10.97×
R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.20 0.31 gems1.1%779739.11.05×
AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.18 0.28 gems1.0%714739.30.97×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covertOra***osa$2.313.55 gems$343528 gems148.8x
★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rare$2.313.55 gems$318489 gems137.8x
★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rare$2.313.55 gems$318489 gems137.8x
★ Talon Knifeknife · covert$2.313.55 gems$285438 gems123.5x
★ Talon Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert$2.313.55 gems$256393 gems110.7x
★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knifeOra***osa$2.313.55 gems$252388 gems109.4x
★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knifeJohn Gaming$2.313.55 gems$252388 gems109.4x
★ Stiletto Knifeknife · covertComelit$2.313.55 gems$244375 gems105.8x
★ Stiletto Knifeknife · covert$2.313.55 gems$244375 gems105.8x
★ Stiletto Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife$2.313.55 gems$224344 gems97.03x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New)weapon · classified$2.313.55 gems$7.1010.92 gems3.08x
Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.313.55 gems$0.460.71 gems0.20x
G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.313.55 gems$1.752.69 gems0.76x
P90 | Traction (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.313.55 gems$0.600.93 gems0.26x
Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.313.55 gems$0.210.32 gems0.09x
Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.313.55 gems$0.460.71 gems0.20x
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert$2.313.55 gems$42.0664.7 gems18.23x
MP9 | Capillary (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.313.55 gems$0.330.5 gems0.14x
AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.313.55 gems$0.180.28 gems0.08x
Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.313.55 gems$0.210.32 gems0.09x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$2.3189.90%69
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%epic 0.0%covert knife 0.1%covert 0.7%gold 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%rare 0.0%knifes 0.0%Covert 0.0%sunny 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%Immortal 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 16.0%mil spec 79.9%best hit $343 (148.8x)