Hostage Situation
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$170.85
263 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $153.77 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.81%
155 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 170 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $1,127 1,734 gems | 73.3% | 17 | 17.0 | 1.00× |
| SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $192 295 gems | 25.0% | 32 | 34.0 | 0.94× |
| M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $23.87 36.72 gems | 0.8% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $19.62 30.19 gems | 0.6% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× |
| Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $1.16 1.79 gems | 0.2% | 56 | 51.0 | 1.10× |
| MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 30.0% | $0.50 0.77 gems | 0.1% | 53 | 51.0 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $171 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%classified 25.0%restricted 5.0%mil spec 30.0%Rare 30.0%best hit $1,127 (6.60x)