Hydra
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$170.96
263 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $153.87 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.72%
172 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 236 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,784 2,744 gems | 58.0% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 15.0% | $397 611 gems | 38.7% | 42 | 35.4 | 1.19× |
| Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $16.63 25.58 gems | 2.2% | 51 | 47.2 | 1.08× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $7.86 12.09 gems | 1.0% | 44 | 47.2 | 0.93× |
| MP9 | Old Roots (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 20.0% | $0.97 1.49 gems | 0.1% | 45 | 47.2 | 0.95× |
| AUG | Snake Pit (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 20.0% | $0.08 0.12 gems | 0.0% | 43 | 47.2 | 0.91× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $171 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%extraordinary 15.0%restricted 20.0%classified 20.0%Uncommon 20.0%Consumer Grade 20.0%best hit $1,784 (10.43x)