Hyper
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.45
57.62 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $33.71 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.42%
3,419 openings, odds method
Variance
50.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,459 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 1,000 | $6,402 9,849 gems | 19.0% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.73× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $2,455 3,777 gems | 29.1% | 11 | 13.8 | 0.80× |
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $517 795 gems | 23.0% | 61 | 51.9 | 1.18× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $319 491 gems | 18.9% | 62 | 69.2 | 0.90× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $39.73 61.12 gems | 7.1% | 225 | 207.5 | 1.08× |
| Souvenir P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 20 | $17.75 27.3 gems | 2.6% | 159 | 172.9 | 0.92× |
| Sticker | Non-Vegsticker · #D2D2D2 | 85.0% | $0.08 0.13 gems | 0.2% | 2,935 | 2940.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$37.4557.62 gems$6,4029,849 gems170.9x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableEisdieleFifty$37.4557.62 gems$6,4029,849 gems170.9x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$37.4557.62 gems$6,4029,849 gems170.9x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$37.4557.62 gems$6,4029,849 gems170.9x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$37.4557.62 gems$6,4029,849 gems170.9x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$37.4557.62 gems$6,4029,849 gems170.9x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeBảoHáCảo$37.4557.62 gems$17.7527.3 gems0.47x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $37.45 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%covert 8.4%classified 1.5%Consumer Grade 5.0%#D2D2D2 85.0%best hit $6,402 (170.9x)