Hypnotic
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.76
10.4 gems
Advertised RTP
89.92%
EV $6.08 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.10%
2,933 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,951 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $66.96 103 gems | 11.0% | 32 | 29.5 | 1.08× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $55.91 86.02 gems | 18.4% | 65 | 59.0 | 1.10× |
| Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $32.27 49.65 gems | 15.9% | 94 | 88.5 | 1.06× |
| Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $22.95 35.3 gems | 15.1% | 122 | 118.0 | 1.03× |
| USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $12.81 19.71 gems | 10.5% | 158 | 147.5 | 1.07× |
| SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 17 | $7.78 11.97 gems | 7.7% | 169 | 177.1 | 0.95× |
| MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $6.97 10.72 gems | 8.0% | 207 | 206.6 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $4.49 6.91 gems | 5.9% | 235 | 236.1 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 1 in 11 | $1.63 2.5 gems | 2.4% | 250 | 265.6 | 0.94× |
| XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New)weapon · violet | 55.0% | $0.55 0.85 gems | 5.0% | 1,619 | 1623.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.76 | 89.92% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 14.0%covert knife 2.0%covert 3.0%restricted 11.0%#4b69ff 6.0%pink 9.0%violet 55.0%best hit —