Ice Man
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$108.19
166 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $97.37 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.89%
240 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $1,143 1,758 gems | 58.7% | 15 | 12.0 | 1.25× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $158 243 gems | 16.2% | 26 | 24.0 | 1.08× |
| Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $139 214 gems | 14.3% | 27 | 24.0 | 1.13× |
| MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $59.92 92.19 gems | 3.1% | 11 | 12.0 | 0.92× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $58.62 90.19 gems | 3.0% | 14 | 12.0 | 1.17× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Undertow (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $30.51 46.94 gems | 1.6% | 13 | 12.0 | 1.08× |
| StatTrak™ Nova | Tempest (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF | 10.0% | $17.46 26.86 gems | 1.8% | 17 | 24.0 | 0.71× |
| MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $5.19 7.98 gems | 1.3% | 60 | 60.0 | 1.00× |
| XM1014 | Blue Steel (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $0.10 0.15 gems | 0.0% | 57 | 60.0 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P250 | Undertow (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$108166 gems$30.5146.94 gems0.28x
XM1014 | Blue Steel (Factory New)weapon · industrialFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$108166 gems$0.100.15 gems0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $108 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 40.0%covert 10.0%mil spec 10.0%Legendary 5.0%#4B69FF 10.0%industrial 25.0%best hit $1,143 (10.56x)