Illegal
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$200.81
309 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $180.73 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.10%
761 openings, odds method
Variance
21.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 827 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 200 | $8,076 12,425 gems | 22.3% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 100 | $5,711 8,787 gems | 31.6% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.09× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 100 | $4,079 6,276 gems | 22.6% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband | 1 in 100 | $2,483 3,820 gems | 13.7% | 5 | 8.3 | 0.60× |
| Sticker | Howling Dawnsticker · contraband | 1 in 67 | $633 974 gems | 5.3% | 17 | 12.4 | 1.37× |
| Howl Pinpin · extraordinary | 10.0% | $30.47 46.88 gems | 1.7% | 97 | 82.7 | 1.17× |
| Charm | Hot Howlcharm · Ancient | 10.0% | $27.03 41.59 gems | 1.5% | 85 | 82.7 | 1.03× |
| Patch | Howlpatch · exotic | 15.0% | $8.92 13.72 gems | 0.7% | 133 | 124.0 | 1.07× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Howling Dawngraffiti · Exotic | 30.0% | $2.94 4.53 gems | 0.5% | 244 | 248.1 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Baby Howlsticker · high | 30.0% | $0.47 0.73 gems | 0.1% | 230 | 248.1 | 0.93× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$201309 gems$8,07612,425 gems40.22x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$201309 gems$8,07612,425 gems40.22x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$201309 gems$8,07612,425 gems40.22x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$201309 gems$5,7118,787 gems28.44x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$201309 gems$5,7118,787 gems28.44x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$201309 gems$5,7118,787 gems28.44x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$201309 gems$5,7118,787 gems28.44x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandSmiling Goose$201309 gems$5,7118,787 gems28.44x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$201309 gems$5,7118,787 gems28.44x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$201309 gems$5,7118,787 gems28.44x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $201 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 5.0%extraordinary 10.0%Ancient 10.0%exotic 15.0%Exotic 30.0%high 30.0%best hit $8,076 (40.22x)