Imaginary
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$54.08
83.2 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $48.67 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.65%
1,944 openings, odds method
Variance
87.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,980 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$54.0883.2 gems$12.2K18,700 gems224.8x
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$54.0883.2 gems$12.2K18,700 gems224.8x
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pinkFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$54.0883.2 gems$10.3215.88 gems0.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $54.08 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%covert 0.6%restricted 0.1%contraband 0.1%classified 69.1%pink 30.0%best hit $12.2K (224.8x)