Impact Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$82.71
127 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $74.44 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.96%
182 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 182 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 20 | $479 737 gems | 32.2% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $297 457 gems | 20.0% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× |
| AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 20 | $234 360 gems | 15.7% | 13 | 9.1 | 1.43× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary | 1 in 20 | $179 275 gems | 12.0% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.21× |
| AWP | LongDog (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 1 in 20 | $91.65 141 gems | 6.2% | 6 | 9.1 | 0.66× |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $57.43 88.35 gems | 3.9% | 7 | 9.1 | 0.77× |
| Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 10.0% | $32.36 49.78 gems | 4.3% | 24 | 18.2 | 1.32× |
| Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $19.18 29.51 gems | 2.6% | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99× |
| USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $7.40 11.39 gems | 2.0% | 35 | 36.4 | 0.96× |
| Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $3.03 4.66 gems | 1.2% | 50 | 54.6 | 0.92× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$1k LB - Code *STV*$82.71127 gems$7.4011.39 gems0.09x
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red$1k LB - Code *STV*$82.71127 gems$32.3649.78 gems0.39x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$82.71127 gems$179275 gems2.16x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryLost Panda$82.71127 gems$179275 gems2.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $82.71 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 5.0%covert 10.0%legendary 10.0%rare 5.0%red 10.0%classified 10.0%mil spec 20.0%restricted 30.0%best hit —