Imperialist
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$70.34
108 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $63.31 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.63%
1,239 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,287 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 20 | $649 999 gems | 51.3% | 54 | 64.3 | 0.84× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny | 1 in 20 | $437 672 gems | 34.5% | 70 | 64.3 | 1.09× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $64.51 99.25 gems | 10.2% | 134 | 128.7 | 1.04× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 10.0% | $14.59 22.44 gems | 2.3% | 121 | 128.7 | 0.94× |
| P250 | Red Rock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $3.09 4.75 gems | 0.7% | 216 | 193.0 | 1.12× |
| Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $2.49 3.83 gems | 1.0% | 317 | 321.7 | 0.99× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 30.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.0% | 375 | 386.1 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $70.34 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 5.0%sunny 5.0%extraordinary 10.0%Ancient 10.0%restricted 40.0%Rare 30.0%best hit $649 (9.23x)