Impulse Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.37
25.19 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.74 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.29%
5,289 openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,326 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Aphrodite (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 20 | $219 338 gems | 74.5% | 287 | 266.3 | 1.08× |
| M4A1-S | Solitude (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $21.34 32.83 gems | 7.2% | 257 | 266.3 | 0.97× |
| MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $13.29 20.45 gems | 9.0% | 508 | 532.6 | 0.95× |
| FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $5.48 8.43 gems | 3.7% | 532 | 532.6 | 1.00× |
| M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 10.0% | $3.73 5.74 gems | 2.5% | 547 | 532.6 | 1.03× |
| AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $2.42 3.72 gems | 1.6% | 518 | 532.6 | 0.97× |
| Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $0.73 1.12 gems | 0.5% | 512 | 532.6 | 0.96× |
| MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 20.0% | $0.45 0.7 gems | 0.6% | 1,070 | 1065.2 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $0.21 0.32 gems | 0.3% | 1,095 | 1065.2 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $16.37 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 5.0%Legendary 5.0%pink 10.0%Mythical 30.0%#d32ee6 10.0%violet 20.0%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit —