Industrial Hazard
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$49.33
75.89 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $44.40 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.71%
350 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 350 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $547 841 gems | 24.6% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× |
| M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $284 437 gems | 19.2% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $157 241 gems | 17.6% | 15 | 17.5 | 0.86× |
| SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified | 1 in 20 | $97.33 150 gems | 11.0% | 19 | 17.5 | 1.09× |
| UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $54.54 83.91 gems | 12.3% | 38 | 35.0 | 1.09× |
| XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 15.0% | $20.80 32 gems | 7.0% | 54 | 52.5 | 1.03× |
| Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $11.36 17.47 gems | 3.8% | 48 | 52.5 | 0.91× |
| MAG-7 | Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $8.11 12.47 gems | 2.7% | 42 | 52.5 | 0.80× |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $4.30 6.62 gems | 1.5% | 57 | 52.5 | 1.09× |
| M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight | 15.0% | $0.57 0.88 gems | 0.2% | 60 | 52.5 | 1.14× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covertxCK97x On Kick | CODE : CK97$49.3375.89 gems$547841 gems11.09x
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$49.3375.89 gems$4.306.62 gems0.09x
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$49.3375.89 gems$4.306.62 gems0.09x
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedxCK97x On Kick | CODE : CK97$49.3375.89 gems$4.306.62 gems0.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $49.33 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.0%mil spec 33.0%Classified 5.0%industrial 10.0%Uncommon 15.0%classified 15.0%blueLight 15.0%best hit $547 (11.09x)