Infra Red
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.06
17.02 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $9.95 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.97%
4,456 openings, odds method
Variance
18.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,669 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $963 1,481 gems | 19.3% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.18× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 333 | $313 482 gems | 9.4% | 14 | 14.0 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $60.84 93.6 gems | 6.1% | 67 | 46.7 | 1.44× |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $28.54 43.91 gems | 28.7% | 444 | 466.9 | 0.95× |
| USP-S | Serum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 14.0% | $19.13 29.43 gems | 26.9% | 653 | 653.7 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $4.50 6.93 gems | 6.8% | 731 | 700.3 | 1.04× |
| Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.63 0.97 gems | 1.6% | 1,130 | 1167.2 | 0.97× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 34.5% | $0.33 0.51 gems | 1.1% | 1,619 | 1610.8 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertDJAMAIKATA$11.0617.02 gems$9631,481 gems87.02x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertparis0743$11.0617.02 gems$9631,481 gems87.02x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert◘Unorthodox-Box■$11.0617.02 gems$9631,481 gems87.02x
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specPeon yo face$11.0617.02 gems$0.330.51 gems0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $11.06 | 89.97% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%Extraordinary 0.3%restricted 1.0%classified 39.0%mil spec 59.5%best hit $963 (87.02x)