Interstellar

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$92.00
142 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $82.80 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.96%
841 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
74.01%±44.24158 openings
7 days
94.51%±19.65801 openings
30 days
93.96%±19.18841 openings
since tracking started
93.96%±19.18841 openings
29.0%74.0%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h15874.01%±44.2−0.7σodds
7d80194.51%±19.6+0.5σodds
30d84193.96%±19.2+0.4σodds
All84193.96%±19.2+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 867 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 500$3,202 4,926 gems7.7%21.71.15×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert1 in 400$2,428 3,735 gems7.3%32.21.38×
MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 200$1,350 2,077 gems8.2%44.30.92×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 200$1,216 1,871 gems7.3%74.31.61×
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 133$852 1,311 gems7.7%56.50.77×
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 100$679 1,044 gems8.2%68.70.69×
M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 77$633 974 gems9.9%1011.30.89×
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 67$561 864 gems10.2%1513.01.15×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 33$298 459 gems10.8%3426.01.31×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20$65.13 100 gems3.9%3943.40.90×
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 13$44.17 67.96 gems4.0%6565.01.00×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare10.0%$28.14 43.29 gems3.4%9086.71.04×
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified10.0%$21.00 32.31 gems2.5%9086.71.04×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert15.0%$19.31 29.7 gems3.5%133130.01.02×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical20.0%$12.08 18.58 gems2.9%148173.40.85×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert23.5%$8.18 12.58 gems2.3%216203.71.06×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$92.00142 gems$3,2024,926 gems34.81x
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$92.00142 gems$3,2024,926 gems34.81x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert$92.00142 gems$2,4283,735 gems26.39x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert$92.00142 gems$2,4283,735 gems26.39x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$92.00142 gems$1,3502,077 gems14.67x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$92.00142 gems$1,3502,077 gems14.67x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$92.00142 gems$1,3502,077 gems14.67x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$92.00142 gems$1,2161,871 gems13.22x

Latest dropsnewest first

M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$92.00142 gems$8.1812.58 gems0.09x
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$92.00142 gems$44.1767.96 gems0.48x
M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$92.00142 gems$8.1812.58 gems0.09x
AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert$92.00142 gems$19.3129.7 gems0.21x
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified$92.00142 gems$21.0032.31 gems0.23x
AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covertHayzeusC$92.00142 gems$19.3129.7 gems0.21x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$92.00142 gems$298459 gems3.24x
M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$92.00142 gems$8.1812.58 gems0.09x
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified$92.00142 gems$21.0032.31 gems0.23x
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified$92.00142 gems$21.0032.31 gems0.23x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$92.0090.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 46.2%Covert 0.3%classified 8.3%sunny 3.5%covert knife 0.8%gold 1.0%rare 10.0%Classified 10.0%Mythical 20.0%best hit $3,202 (34.81x)