Jade Dynasty
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$41.17
63.34 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $37.05 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.88%
298 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 316 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 20 | $372 572 gems | 50.2% | 14 | 15.8 | 0.89× |
| P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $80.24 123 gems | 21.7% | 30 | 31.6 | 0.95× |
| P90 | Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $60.61 93.24 gems | 16.4% | 32 | 31.6 | 1.01× |
| CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $14.40 22.16 gems | 3.9% | 33 | 31.6 | 1.04× |
| MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $11.05 17 gems | 3.0% | 31 | 31.6 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $7.49 11.52 gems | 2.0% | 30 | 31.6 | 0.95× |
| M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $5.17 7.95 gems | 1.4% | 29 | 31.6 | 0.92× |
| MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $2.74 4.22 gems | 0.7% | 29 | 31.6 | 0.92× |
| Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $1.89 2.91 gems | 0.5% | 35 | 31.6 | 1.11× |
| AK-47 | Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue | 15.0% | $0.69 1.06 gems | 0.3% | 53 | 47.4 | 1.12× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$41.1763.34 gems$372572 gems9.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $41.17 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%classified 30.0%mil spec 10.0%industrial 10.0%violet 10.0%consumer 10.0%Rare 10.0%blue 15.0%best hit —