Jester’s Gambit
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.19
21.83 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $12.77 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.87%
1,278 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,305 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $122 187 gems | 47.7% | 52 | 65.3 | 0.80× |
| AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 20 | $51.04 78.53 gems | 20.0% | 72 | 65.3 | 1.10× |
| USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 20 | $29.00 44.61 gems | 11.4% | 77 | 65.3 | 1.18× |
| Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 20 | $12.47 19.18 gems | 4.9% | 56 | 65.3 | 0.86× |
| Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $7.75 11.92 gems | 6.1% | 115 | 130.5 | 0.88× |
| UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $4.45 6.84 gems | 3.5% | 122 | 130.5 | 0.93× |
| Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $2.07 3.18 gems | 2.4% | 212 | 195.8 | 1.08× |
| MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9 | 15.0% | $1.74 2.68 gems | 2.0% | 201 | 195.8 | 1.03× |
| MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9 | 15.0% | $1.06 1.63 gems | 1.2% | 187 | 195.8 | 0.96× |
| XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 15.0% | $0.71 1.09 gems | 0.8% | 211 | 195.8 | 1.08× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareAggressive Moose$14.1921.83 gems$2.073.18 gems0.15x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $14.19 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedpink 5.0%Mythical 10.0%#4b69ff 25.0%Rare 15.0%#5e98d9 30.0%Uncommon 15.0%best hit —