Jingle Bells
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.96
3.01 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $1.76 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.85%
11.7K openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $14.98 23.05 gems | 42.6% | 577 | 596.3 | 0.97× |
| Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $5.97 9.19 gems | 17.0% | 604 | 596.3 | 1.01× |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $5.45 8.38 gems | 15.5% | 583 | 596.3 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $4.29 6.6 gems | 12.2% | 615 | 596.3 | 1.03× |
| M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 1 in 20 | $0.68 1.04 gems | 1.9% | 546 | 596.3 | 0.92× |
| G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 25.0% | $0.29 0.45 gems | 4.2% | 3,072 | 2981.5 | 1.03× |
| SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 25.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 3.4% | 2,981 | 2981.5 | 1.00× |
| MP5-SD | Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 25.0% | $0.23 0.36 gems | 3.3% | 2,948 | 2981.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.96 | 89.97% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%classified 5.0%Legendary 10.0%violet 30.0%Rare 25.0%milspec 25.0%best hit —