Jolly Jackpot Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$194.55
299 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $175.09 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.44%
34 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 34 openings and 5.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,223 1,882 gems | 34.9% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.76× |
| AUG | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $329 506 gems | 18.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $260 400 gems | 14.8% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $164 253 gems | 9.4% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 19.0% | $98.41 151 gems | 10.7% | 12 | 6.5 | 1.86× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 19.0% | $58.21 89.55 gems | 6.3% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert | 27.0% | $32.81 50.48 gems | 5.1% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $195 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 70.0%mil spec 10.0%restricted 10.0%classified 10.0%best hit $1,223 (6.29x)