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Kamikaze

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$148.82
229 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $133.93 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.50%
1,452 openings, odds method
Variance
18.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
155 openings · below min
7 days
98.53%±23.671,244 openings
30 days
97.50%±21.911,452 openings
since tracking started
97.50%±21.911,452 openings
27.0%94.8%162.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h15594.87%±67.1—odds
7d1,24498.53%±23.7+0.7σodds
30d1,45297.50%±21.9+0.7σodds
All1,45297.50%±21.9+0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,484 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 500$8,239 12,675 gems12.3%43.01.35×
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 333$6,497 9,996 gems14.6%34.50.67×
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 200$3,722 5,726 gems13.9%117.41.48×
M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband1 in 100$2,178 3,351 gems16.3%1514.81.01×
AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$1,339 2,060 gems10.0%1714.81.15×
Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$911 1,402 gems6.8%1814.81.21×
★ Karambitknife · covert1 in 100$709 1,090 gems5.3%1214.80.81×
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 100$545 839 gems4.1%1614.81.08×
M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$475 731 gems3.5%1514.81.01×
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · sunny1 in 100$422 649 gems3.1%1514.81.01×
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$364 560 gems2.7%1514.81.01×
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable1 in 100$337 518 gems2.5%1614.81.08×
CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec30.0%$16.81 25.86 gems3.8%404445.20.91×
P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer60.0%$2.52 3.87 gems1.1%923890.41.04×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$149229 gems$8,23912,675 gems55.36x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$149229 gems$8,23912,675 gems55.36x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$149229 gems$8,23912,675 gems55.36x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$149229 gems$8,23912,675 gems55.36x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$149229 gems$6,4979,996 gems43.66x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$149229 gems$6,4979,996 gems43.66x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$149229 gems$6,4979,996 gems43.66x
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$149229 gems$3,7225,726 gems25.01x
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$149229 gems$3,7225,726 gems25.01x
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$149229 gems$3,7225,726 gems25.01x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer$149229 gems$2.523.87 gems0.02x
P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer$149229 gems$2.523.87 gems0.02x
CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil specMoncler$149229 gems$16.8125.86 gems0.11x
P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer$149229 gems$2.523.87 gems0.02x
P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer$149229 gems$2.523.87 gems0.02x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable$149229 gems$337518 gems2.26x
P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer$149229 gems$2.523.87 gems0.02x
P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer$149229 gems$2.523.87 gems0.02x
P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumerBolpyFR$149229 gems$2.523.87 gems0.02x
P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer$149229 gems$2.523.87 gems0.02x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$14990.00%14
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 1.5%legendary 0.5%contraband 1.0%covert 2.0%restricted 1.0%classified 3.0%sunny 1.0%mil spec 30.0%consumer 60.0%best hit $8,239 (55.36x)