Kato Archive

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$533.88

821 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $480.49 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

58.87%

224 openings, odds method

Variance

29.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 89

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

164 openings · below min

30 days

224 openings · below min

since tracking started

224 openings · below min

-0.5%74.0%148.5%

Small sample. 224 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	164	64.91%±82.8	—	odds
30d	224	58.87%±70.8	—	odds
All	224	58.87%±70.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 232 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$48.5K 74,573 gems	12.6%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 800	$44.2K 68,000 gems	11.5%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 800	$42.2K 64,996 gems	11.0%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$15.8K 24,294 gems	4.1%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$14.6K 22,491 gems	3.8%	1	0.3	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 800	$12.4K 19,109 gems	3.2%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$6,666 10,256 gems	1.7%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$4,572 7,034 gems	1.2%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$3,250 5,000 gems	0.8%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 800	$2,785 4,284 gems	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 800	$2,694 4,145 gems	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$2,649 4,076 gems	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$2,542 3,911 gems	0.7%	1	0.3	—
Sticker \| 3DMAX (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$1,873 2,882 gems	0.5%	2	0.3	—
Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$1,602 2,465 gems	0.4%	1	0.3	—
Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 800	$665 1,023 gems	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	98.0%	$226 348 gems	46.1%	227	227.4	1.00×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.