KEKW Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$128.69
198 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $115.81 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.81%
189 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 189 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $675 1,039 gems | 58.3% | 24 | 18.9 | 1.27× |
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $395 607 gems | 34.1% | 14 | 18.9 | 0.74× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $97.29 150 gems | 4.2% | 14 | 9.4 | 1.48× |
| StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $12.43 19.12 gems | 2.7% | 44 | 47.2 | 0.93× |
| StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical | 25.0% | $2.51 3.86 gems | 0.5% | 41 | 47.2 | 0.87× |
| Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.81 1.25 gems | 0.2% | 52 | 47.3 | 1.10× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$129198 gems$12.4319.12 gems0.10x
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$129198 gems$12.4319.12 gems0.10x
Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Factory New)weapon · mil specCodeWILDCS 2K LB$129198 gems$0.811.25 gems0.01x
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalBeljit$129198 gems$2.513.86 gems0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $129 | 89.99% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%covert 15.0%restricted 25.0%Mythical 25.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit $675 (5.25x)