Kil-A-What
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.68
36.43 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $21.31 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.74%
626 openings, odds method
Variance
11.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 632 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $1,211 1,863 gems | 14.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 200 | $506 779 gems | 11.9% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.32× |
| AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $451 694 gems | 15.9% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.05× |
| M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 29 | $70.82 109 gems | 11.6% | 19 | 22.1 | 0.86× |
| USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 25 | $53.44 82.22 gems | 10.0% | 20 | 25.3 | 0.79× |
| Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 1 in 17 | $47.45 73 gems | 13.4% | 33 | 37.9 | 0.87× |
| M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet | 19.0% | $7.95 12.23 gems | 7.1% | 128 | 120.1 | 1.07× |
| Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 19.0% | $7.15 11 gems | 6.4% | 134 | 120.1 | 1.12× |
| Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 19.0% | $6.97 10.73 gems | 6.2% | 119 | 120.1 | 0.99× |
| MAC-10 | Light Box (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 14.0% | $4.15 6.38 gems | 2.7% | 81 | 88.5 | 0.92× |
| UMP-45 | Motorized (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 14.0% | $0.92 1.42 gems | 0.6% | 92 | 88.5 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $23.68 | 89.98% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%red 0.5%pink 7.5%Classified 6.0%violet 19.0%restricted 38.0%Rare 28.0%best hit $506 (21.38x)