Killer Loadout
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$867.47
1,335 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $780.72 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
115.55%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic | 20.0% | $1,781 2,739 gems | 45.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert | 15.0% | $1,037 1,595 gems | 19.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $899 1,384 gems | 17.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $455 700 gems | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $440 677 gems | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 10.0% | $410 631 gems | 5.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $224 345 gems | 2.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red | 10.0% | $185 284 gems | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b | 10.0% | $75.76 117 gems | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $867 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 20.0%Covert 15.0%restricted 15.0%covert 5.0%classified 15.0%rare 10.0%red 10.0%#eb4b4b 10.0%best hit $1,781 (2.05x)