King of the Castle
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$112.85
174 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $101.56 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.77%
577 openings, odds method
Variance
7.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 589 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $1,821 2,801 gems | 35.9% | 15 | 11.8 | 1.27× |
| AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,190 1,830 gems | 23.4% | 9 | 11.8 | 0.76× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $599 922 gems | 17.7% | 19 | 17.7 | 1.08× |
| CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $265 408 gems | 7.8% | 19 | 17.7 | 1.08× |
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $48.52 74.64 gems | 7.2% | 96 | 88.3 | 1.09× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $30.54 46.99 gems | 4.5% | 101 | 88.3 | 1.14× |
| MAG-7 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $14.37 22.1 gems | 2.8% | 102 | 117.8 | 0.87× |
| Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $3.07 4.72 gems | 0.6% | 112 | 117.8 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | All Hail the King (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6 | 20.0% | $0.36 0.56 gems | 0.1% | 116 | 117.8 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 22:53 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $113 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.0%covert 20.0%restricted 23.0%industrial 35.0%#d32ce6 20.0%best hit $1,821 (16.14x)