King of the Hill
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7,681.58
11,818 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6,913.35 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 10.0% | $32.5K 50,000 gems | 47.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $26.2K 40,275 gems | 37.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 10.0% | $8,663 13,328 gems | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 20 | $1,684 2,590 gems | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $1,667 2,564 gems | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| P250 | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 1 in 20 | $90.94 140 gems | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $62.86 96.7 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 25.0% | $14.32 22.03 gems | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $1.79 2.75 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $7,682 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 20.0%covert 15.0%high 5.0%classified 5.0%milspec 5.0%Ancient 25.0%restricted 25.0%