KingPin
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.66
42.55 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $24.89 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.26%
261 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 325 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $162 250 gems | 32.6% | 14 | 16.2 | 0.86× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $111 170 gems | 22.2% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $94.32 145 gems | 18.9% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.92× |
| Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $34.90 53.69 gems | 7.0% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.92× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $32.84 50.53 gems | 6.6% | 10 | 16.2 | 0.62× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $20.62 31.73 gems | 4.1% | 16 | 16.2 | 0.98× |
| SSG 08 | Threat Detected (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 35.0% | $4.47 6.88 gems | 6.3% | 124 | 113.7 | 1.09× |
| USP-S | Lead Conduit (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 35.0% | $1.53 2.36 gems | 2.2% | 114 | 113.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $27.66 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%covert 20.0%Rare 35.0%mil spec 35.0%best hit —