Knife 50-50
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.29
45.06 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $26.36 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.44%
876 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 954 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $68.02 105 gems | 25.8% | 100 | 95.4 | 1.05× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 10.0% | $50.13 77.13 gems | 19.0% | 99 | 95.4 | 1.04× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 10.0% | $47.18 72.58 gems | 17.9% | 88 | 95.4 | 0.92× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 20.0% | $43.80 67.38 gems | 33.2% | 214 | 190.8 | 1.12× |
| Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $4.20 6.46 gems | 4.0% | 226 | 238.5 | 0.95× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Factory New)weapon · Common | 25.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.1% | 227 | 238.5 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classifiedSVJ$29.2945.06 gems$4.206.46 gems0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $29.29 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%classified 25.0%Common 25.0%best hit —