Knives Out
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$208.56
321 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $187.70 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.81%
76 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 76 openings and 11.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 76 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,034 1,590 gems | 27.5% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| ★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $568 874 gems | 15.1% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.58× |
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 20 | $412 634 gems | 11.0% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.58× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $275 423 gems | 7.3% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.58× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $259 398 gems | 6.9% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $197 303 gems | 5.2% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $143 220 gems | 3.8% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 25.0% | $83.09 128 gems | 11.1% | 14 | 19.0 | 0.74× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 20.0% | $64.38 99.05 gems | 6.9% | 14 | 15.2 | 0.92× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 20.0% | $48.24 74.22 gems | 5.1% | 18 | 15.2 | 1.18× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covertclepto holding$209321 gems$48.2474.22 gems0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $209 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 75.0%gold 5.0%covert knife 20.0%best hit $1,034 (4.96x)